/biz/ - Quantum Doge / Q-Day (fictional 2017 thread)

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:41:08 No.18647022 [Reply]

Quantum Doge: 2027 contingency plan

Been reading about Shor's algorithm and the long-term problem with elliptic-curve signatures. Everyone talks about quantum machines as if they have to break SHA-256 and mine every block. Wrong target. A sufficiently large fault-tolerant machine could attack the discrete-log problem behind wallet signatures once a public key is exposed.

Here's my entirely serious ten-year forecast: around 2026–2027, machine-learning breakthroughs and quantum-computing headlines will convince half of crypto Twitter that their private keys are about to fall out of their pockets. Markets will price in the apocalypse before anybody demonstrates an actual wallet break.

Therefore I present QUANTUM DOGE, our appointed guardian of the post-classical financial system. He cannot prove your keys are safe. He can, however, look extremely confident while the entire market panics. In a decade we'll need both proper cryptography and this dog.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:43:16 No.18647051 [Reply]

>>18647022
For once /biz/ has a technically defensible doompost. Shor breaks ECDLP in principle, not SHA-256 outright. The distinction matters. Current quantum hardware is nowhere near a useful attack, but key exposure is an architectural question, not a meme.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:44:49 No.18647079 [Reply]

File: qubit_circuit.png (image)

>>18647051
Right. And the time horizon is anybody's guess. A qubit is not a magic faster transistor. You need error correction and a ridiculous amount of coherent computation. OP is assigning a calendar date to a research problem. The dog is better at forecasting.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:47:02 No.18647108 [Reply]

>>18647079
He's forecasting fear, not a functioning cryptanalytic machine. The market can crash on an abstract theorem if enough people misunderstand it at the same time. Have you seen this board?

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:49:31 No.18647144 [Reply]

>>18647022
AI might help design circuits or optimize error correction eventually, but it does not simply invert an elliptic curve because a neural network got smart. Still, a scary enough breakthrough headline could trigger a mass wallet migration. That is the part I would actually bet on.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:52:08 No.18647193 [Reply]

File: elliptic_curve.png (image)

>>18647144
Imagine explaining to the average holder that an address hash and a public key are different things. The security story depends on script type, address reuse, and when a key becomes visible. Half this board still thinks the blockchain stores coins inside the wallet.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:54:17 No.18647220 [Reply]

>>18647193
Also the signature algorithm matters. Quantum-resistant signature schemes are being researched already. The hard part is migrating a decentralized network without creating new failure modes or blowing up transaction sizes.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)19:57:34 No.18647273 [Reply]

>>18647220
Precisely. Suppose you discover a credible quantum break is coming. Do you force old coins to move? What about lost keys and dormant addresses? Consensus over cryptographic migration could be more contentious than the mathematics.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)20:00:11 No.18647318 [Reply]

File: quantum_wave.png (image)

>>18647273
So our options are (1) solve distributed governance, (2) solve quantum-resistant signatures, or (3) elect this Shiba Inu chief information security officer. I support option 3 while engineering works on 1 and 2.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)20:02:46 No.18647355 [Reply]

>>18647022
2027 is oddly specific. If the machines are still lab curiosities, the joke will be on you. If everyone panic-sells because an AI paper says something about factoring, the joke will also be on you. Impressive asymmetric positioning.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)20:06:09 No.18647402 [Reply]

>>18647355
That's the thesis: Q-Day does not have to arrive for Q-Day fear to trade. People price probabilities, then leverage makes the probabilities everyone's problem. Quantum Doge is the only one here with a diversified portfolio of treats.

Anonymous 11/04/17(Sat)20:10:27 No.18647468 [Reply]

>>18647402
Serious answer: start researching post-quantum signatures early, avoid unnecessary public-key reuse where the protocol permits it, and do not confuse a laboratory milestone with an operational attack. Unserious answer: all hail the quantum dog.

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